Pakistan successfully executes plan to bleed India by a thousand cuts
1999 saw a spectacular strategic success for Operation Tupac at Kargil. Winters in Kargil are harsh and by a gentleman’s agreement both Indian and Pakistani forces used to withdraw from their bunkers in winter and return only in summer. Musharraf and ISI betrayed India, while Vajpayee negotiated peace. Pakistani troops and irregulars captured unoccupied Indian positions in the winter of 1998-1999. RAW was caught napping and Indians only got wind of it, when shepherds informed Indian military about strangers occupying their bunkers. The Kargil War was fought in the summer of 1999. India won the war though it was an embarrassing diplomatic and intelligence failure for India. Kargil was thought to be a Siachen payback.
The Indian Parliament attacks in 2001 was an effective fidayeen strike by the JeM and LeT under the guidance of the ISI, that killed 14 people including 5 terrorists. Pakistan had by this time become a nuclear power. ISI had a role here as well. The agency had smuggled Abdul Qadir Khan from Holland from where the sensitive technology was stolen. He had, as it emerged, created a clandestine network for the proliferation and exchange of nuclear technology and material with China, Iran, North Korea and Libya. From the standpoint of Pakistan, becoming a nuclear power was a dream come true. Though, the establishment formally laid the blame for illegal proliferation at A Q Khan’s door, it begs the question why A Q Khan is the only person in the history of Pakistan, who has been awarded the country’s highest civilian honor Nishan-E-Imtiaz twice (1996 and 1999) under two different regimes, after having received the Hilal- E- Imtiaz, the nation’s second highest honor earlier in 1989. Even though, he was alleged to have sold nuclear secrets unknown to the state, no money was ever found and the scientist lived on modest means. It is hard not to see the ISI’s unseen hand here.
The feather in Pakistan’s cap was 26/11 Mumbai attacks by the LeT in 2008. This massive, daring attack was systematically planned over a long time. This attack caught Indian security and law enforcement flat footed. It took days for the country to quell the attack and neutralize the terrorists. By then, 161 Indian citizens had been executed, one of Mumbai’s iconic landmarks turned into a battlefield while India was caught between mourning the dead and defending its honor in full view of the world. The weakness in the system was exposed again, and lack of consequences, convinced Pakistan of India’s paralyzed resolve. While all the attackers ultimately died, the puppet masters continue their work unhindered in Pakistan. India had been invaded on this occasion through the seas.
The network between Pakistani Military, intelligence agencies, Jihadi terror affiliates and their Indian extensions like Indian Mujahideen, evolved over decades. Their plan to bleed India by a thousand cuts, by and large has been successful.
Pathankot and Uri attacks in 2016 were higher milestones for the continuing operation Tupac, because these were attacks on large fortified Indian military bases and not soft civilian targets. Their significance and message is clear. Pakistan remains convinced that an escalating terror strategy is not only feasible but advisable, given not only India’s tepid verbal responses to terrorism, but its inability to hold on to the gains of conventional war. The one aberration of a surgical strike has bucked the trend and sowed come confusion in Pakistan while the expected clarity in India has been obscured by the ensuing politics.
Large swathes of the Indian politicians and media inflict their own thousand cuts on the nation. This will continue until mechanisms are found to reduce their disproportionate power over the nation’s destiny. The electorate in India will again have to prove more sagacious than the forces manipulating them.
Mohammed bin Qasim has a place of glory in the history of Pakistan while his memory has dimmed in India. It is worth remembering that there were 14 Arab expeditions to Sindh and neighboring parts as recounted by GM Syed, prior to the eventual success of Qasim in 712 AD and the entry of Arab Imperialism on Indian shores. Qasim was 17 when he attacked Sindh. Indians often take pride in the valor of their defending Kings from Raja Dahir Sen to Prithviraj Chauhan. The Islamic Republic of Pakistan correctly interprets their version of history as the saga of invading heroes of Islam, who keep attacking until they conquer. Pakistan’s Kashmir policy reflects this historical understanding. India’s flawed defensive response is equally consistent with its own historical perspective. India makes heroes of martyrs and Pakistan adores only victors.